A Detailed Analysis of Player Performance and Development by Draft Round
It is hard to describe drafting as anything less than essential to the success of a professional sports franchise. The teams that are able to plant the seeds for long term success on draft day each year will have a clear advantage over the five to ten years that follow – if not sooner. We all know that every NHL franchise has an expert scouting team, and many likely use metrics like league equivalencies to see what they are getting from a pick – but how many teams know what to expect from a player’s long term performance based on the round they drafted him? Further, how would that knowledge impact how a team assigns ‘value’ to its future picks in trades?
In order to answer these, and other questions, I have dug into some of the data available, and summarized into a report that you can find here. Warning – it is long. In this ‘report’, I try to answer the two questions above, as well as a more detailed list of questions that you can find at the bottom of the page. Quickly, thanks to Hockey-Reference.com for the draft year data, and HockeyAbstract.com for the historical NHL season data.
As the first piece of work I am releasing to the NHL analytics world, the most basic reason that I have focused on draft analysis is because I personally am very curious about it. Like many fans, I often find myself looking at the exciting picks selected each year, but previously I had not quantitatively understood what to expect from those players in the NHL – specifically on a long term, year by year basis, generalized to the round they were drafted in. Before starting to analyze some of the data available, I also didn’t have a full appreciation of how a team should be treating the long term potential value behind those picks versus what else is out there (though some great work has been done on that in the past, by Stephen Burtch and Michael Shuckers, amongst others).
Lastly, I also think draft analysis has a number of strong parallels to the analysis done in value investing (aka the purpose of this blog). When an investor is evaluating a potential company to buy, the major focus is on its growth and earnings potential over a very long term time horizon, e.g. 4-7 years, or more. Much like ‘investing’ in the potential, growth and long term development of a player, the same type of thought process needs to be followed when buying a company. Investors operate with scarce resources and other constraints (e.g. contract limits, salary caps), they must have a clear understanding of their own strategy and needs (e.g. immediate cup contender vs. rebuild scenario), they have to undergo prioritization by evaluating the alternatives against a set of criteria (e.g. prioritizing positions, ranking players in each), and ultimately they have to make a decision on how to move forward – a decision that they will often have to live with for half a decade or more (in the case of private companies).
In investing, as in drafting to help build an NHL organization – the more detailed, understandable, and accurate quantitative information you have to support your decisions, the more likely you are to be successful. Thus, as the NHL enters the months before the trade deadline, I hope the attached analysis can give the online community some food for thought as to who the winners and losers are of trades to come. Please let me know any comments, questions, feedback or areas for further analysis at @OrgSixAnalytics or OriginalSixAnalytics@gmail.com.
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For reference, the analysis seeks to answer the following questions:
- If a player is drafted in round X, and is ultimately able to make the NHL, by when should they be expected to be a contributing NHL player?
- How well does the typical player perform over the course of his career (on various metrics) after being selected in a given round? Within the first round, how do the top 10 overall picks perform versus those taken 11th-30th?
- How much more valuable is a pick in the first round versus the other rounds? All things being equal, what should a pick from each round be worth in a trade?
- Which teams were the most effective at drafting in the period sampled?